EVIDENCE
Trust begins when the line between fact and interpretation is visible.
The sourcing, citation, and publication system behind every case, claim, graph, and recommendation on this site.
SIX STATEMENT TYPES
Different claims deserve different labels.
F
Source Fact
Directly supported by a cited primary or authoritative source.
S
Market Signal
An observable pattern that may indicate movement but is not proof of cause.
I
Interpretation
My explanation of what the evidence may mean.
A
Assumption
A condition required for the reasoning to hold.
H
Hypothesis
A causal claim designed to be tested and potentially falsified.
R
Recommendation
The decision I would make given the evidence, uncertainty, and trade-offs.
THE EVIDENCE LADDER
Confidence must be earned, not implied.
Conceptual classification — not a statistical score.
01
VERIFIED
Current primary evidence supports the statement and its precise wording.
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02
SUPPORTED
Credible evidence exists, but scope, period, attribution, or wording needs final review.
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03
HYPOTHESIS
A reasoned claim to test—not a biographical fact or market certainty.
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04
NOT FOR PUBLICATION
Insufficiently sourced, confidential, legally sensitive, or awaiting permission.
SOURCE & EVIDENCE LEDGER
Every material graph and claim should be traceable.
01
Source
Original publisher, author, dataset, or institutional owner.
02
Date & scope
Publication date, observation period, geography, population, and limitations.
03
Claim supported
The exact statement the source can reasonably support.
04
Evidence status
Verified, Supported, Hypothesis, or Not for Publication.
05
Method note
How the figure or conclusion was constructed; no invented data.
06
URL / DOI
A direct link readers can inspect.
FOUNDATIONAL REFERENCES
Research supporting the decision discipline.
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A Scientific Approach to Entrepreneurial Decision Making
Camuffo et al. (2020). A randomized controlled trial on hypothesis-driven entrepreneurial decisions.
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Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Tversky & Kahneman (1974). A foundational account of recurring bias in judgment under uncertainty.
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Making Fast Strategic Decisions in High-Velocity Environments
Eisenhardt (1989). Evidence on information use, alternatives, and strategic decision speed.
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Exploration and Exploitation in Organizational Learning
March (1991). A foundational model for balancing learning and execution.
EDITORIAL COMMITMENTS
What readers can expect.
- Use primary sources whenever available and date material facts.
- Separate company outcomes from my direct contribution.
- State assumptions, uncertainty, and confidence explicitly.
- Identify what evidence would change the recommendation.
- Give every data graph a source, period, method note, and accessible link.
- Correct material errors visibly when stronger evidence emerges.
- Protect confidential, personal, legal, and third-party information.
Evidence is a product feature.
Credibility compounds when readers can inspect not only the conclusion, but also the limits of the claim.