Education Choice Can Help Students and Families Affected by Declining Public School Enrollment
Remember that scene from Avengers: Endgame when Thanos, after wiping out half the universe, says calmly, “I am inevitable”?
For many public school districts in America, the challenge isn’t a purple titan but something nearly as relentless: declining student enrollment. But unlike the Avengers, who scramble to find solutions, some school districts remain slow to , leaving students and families with fewer options.
As we grapple with changing demographics, declining birth rates, and the long shadow of COVID-induced enrollment drops, public schools are feeling the pressure. The national birth rate by 14% between FY 2013 and FY 2022, and by 2030, the number of school-aged children will be in stark decline. This is already underway, further accelerated by the pandemic, which led many families to traditional schooling models. Yet so far, states and districts have been slow to adapt.
As much as some would like to paint it as being about new school choice policies being passed in states across the country, it isn’t. Large urban school districts in states without these programs—such as California, Illinois, and New York—are also grappling with large numbers of under-enrolled public schools. These states are also experiencing out-state , in addition to grappling with other demographic challenges.
Despite fewer students, many school districts continue to operate under the assumption that enrollment will rebound. Chicago Public Schools is a where 58% of schools are underused. One school, Douglass Academy High School, is operating at only 4% capacity, yet it receives about $68,000 for each student enrolled, or almost $50,000 more per pupil than the district average. This inability to adapt is not just an issue of wasted resources; it also limits students' access to better educational options.
Maintaining large, under-enrolled buildings wastes valuable resources, but the solution doesn’t have to be school closures alone. Nor is it a solution to simply property taxes to fund under-enrolled classrooms and maintain current funding levels. (Should districts decrease property tax when enrollment grows?)
Closures may be inevitable—unless districts turn to a creative approach by embracing school choice and transforming their unused space into opportunities for diverse educational options.
Instead of seeing empty classrooms as a burden, school districts could treat them as an asset by leasing underutilized buildings and empty spaces to charter public schools, microschools, hybrid schools, and other education providers like tutors and therapy specialists. Such measures would generate new revenue for districts while providing families with more educational choices close to home. Imagine a single school building where parents have access to two or three different educational options—perhaps the traditional district public school alongside a charter or micro school sharing the same space.
This approach offers multiple benefits. It gives districts a much-needed funding source while at the same time, it offers families a greater range of educational choices for families. Leasing space to schools that align with community needs could revitalize neighborhood schools, transforming them into community hubs that offer diverse educational models such as STEM-focused charters or hybrid programs that blend in-person and online learning.
Universal school choice, particularly through Education Savings Accounts (ESAs), is key to making this vision a reality. ESAs allow families to use state education dollars for tuition and other educational services, whether that’s a private school, a microschool, tutoring, or homeschooling. Universal ESAs incentivize the and expansion of a diverse range of K-12 education providers.
This growth in educational supply could be especially beneficial for under-enrolled districts with empty spaces By leasing classrooms to new education providers that emerge in response to ESA-driven demand, districts can make effective use of their resources while fostering educational innovation.
Leasing space to alternative educational models isn’t just a temporary fix. It can be part of a sustainable solution for public school districts facing declining enrollment. With fewer students, districts must rethink how they use their resources. By partnering with other education providers, districts can innovate and offer more to their communities.
Universal school choice also strengthens the entire education ecosystem. It encourages competition, driving all schools—including district-run schools—to improve their offerings. When districts are incentivized to compete, they can no longer afford to be complacent. Instead of waiting for school closures to become inevitable, districts can repurpose their resources to meet new demands and better serve families.
This strategy avoids the harsh disruptions that come with mass school closures and instead turns declining enrollment into an opportunity for schools to diversify, adapt, and ultimately better serve students.
We don’t need Thanos snapping his fingers to wipe out the future of our children. We need forward-thinking policymakers and district leaders who are willing to embrace change, adopt education choice, and ensure every student has access to the best educational opportunities available—right in their own neighborhood.
